Ahmadinejad could have an interest in the escalation of the Iran conflict.

Danger of war in Iran - Conflict as real as never before - Comment on 2012 March 2

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2012 March 2

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The danger of a war against Iran is as real as never before. Ahmadinejad himself has an interest in an escalation of the conflict. With the president’s elections 2013 he is no longer allowed to take up office. Ahmadinejad can decide the power dispute only over the escalation of the international conflict. Read more:

Today are parliamentary elections in Iran and they caused the media to report about the country and especially about the political situation and I bring some excerpts from it.

Two days ago there was already an entry about this: 2012 Feb 29 – Iran: Report brings details of repression in Iran ahead of vote. And there was also talk about the power struggle within the regime.

The reason why we are dealing here with Iran comes from the prophecy in Daniel 8 and on this website several entries exist related to this.

Here now excerpts of what I read today:

 

Security experts warn

Danger of war in the Iran - conflict “as real as never before”

President Ahmadinejad could have an interest in the escalation of the Iran conflict – and that for inner political reasons. The security expert of the Greens (Die Grünen), Nouripour, comes to this conclusion. The danger of an Israeli attack on Iran he assesses as low.

Iran: The president puts the fear of God into the Ayatollah

The outcome of the Iranian parliamentary elections on the 2nd of March have been already settled: They will strengthen the incumbent President Mahmud Ahmadinejad.

Parliamentary election in Iran is test for Ahmadinejad

Parliamentary elections started in the morning in Iran. Three years after his re-election, which was overshadowed by forgery accusations, the going to the polls are regarded as popularity test for President Mahmud Ahmadinejad.

Good prospects are given to the so-called Principlists, who are close to the highest leader Ayatollah Ali Chamenei and hold Ahmadinejad responsible for the failure of the economic reforms. The election is mainly of domestic policy importance; great effects on international conflicts like the atom dispute are not expected.

With the election everything amounts to a trial of strength between Ahmadinejad’s party and the Principlists. The conservatives around the former atom negotiator Ali Laridjani are close to the clergy. They not only accuse Ahmadinejad of a failed economic politics, but also his alleged giving up of the Islamic system through national paroles.

The reformers around the former President Mohammed Chatami cannot expect great reasons for hope. Their leaders are confined to their own homes and are politically practically eliminated. For that very reason the election is accompanied by boycott proclamations in social networks.

The voting will not have a decisive influence on the conflict of the country with the world community. The atom dispute, the sanctions connected with it and a possible military stroke of Israel on the Iranian atom installations are so-called “state matters”, where the parliament has nothing to say. They are decided by Ayatollah Ali Chamenei and his closest advisors.

The security expert of Die Grünen (The Greens), Omid Nouripour, warned of a growing danger of war through over-reaction of the West against the Mullah regime. The intercourse with Ahmadinejad is like patience said the security political speaker of Die Grünen Bundestag’s party, who was born in Tehran, to the news agency dpa in Berlin. “We must carry on putting pressure on with sanctions, but with all threatening through the Iranian atom program: We still have time.”

“The danger of a war against Iran is as real as never before”, warned Nouripour. Ahmadinejad himself has an interest in an escalation of the conflict with the community of states. His time window closes with the president’s elections 2013, where he is no longer allowed to take up office. That is why the time runs out for a power struggle with Ayatollah Ali Chamenei, the strong man in Iran. “Ahmadinejad can decide the power dispute only over the escalation of the international conflict”, warned Nouripour.

Power struggle within the regime.

Parliamentary elections in Iran completely in the sign of the conflict between the leader of the revolution and the president

On the 2nd of March a new parliament is elected in Iran. There is no longer a dispute between the orthodox and reformers but only a power struggle within the ruling leadership of the Islamic Republic.

Since then numerous followers of Ahmedinejad were arrested under the accusation of corruption. Moreover the camp of Khamenei schemes a campaign against Esfandiar Rahim Mashai, the closest confidant and brother-in-law of Ahmedinejad. It is assumed in Iran that Ahmedinejad would like to see him as his successor when his second period of office will expire 2013.

Of the total 5395 applicants for the parliamentary elections 3444 have received authorization from the guardian council. In the process so many sympathizers of Ahmedinejad were turned down “because of lack of conformity to Islam and to political order”, that he had to fall back upon younger and hardly known applicants to whom less chances are conceded at the elections. This should provide an advantage for the followers of Khamenei on the 2nd of March.

But in the camp of Ahmedinejad they nevertheless hope that about half of the representatives in the new parliament will be on the side of the president. Besides in the extreme case Ahmedinejad should have innumerable incriminating documents at his disposal as means of exerting pressure, which demonstrate the prevailing corruption and nepotism in the power elite.

A further factor not to be underestimated in the Iranian power struggle constitute the revolutionary guards, which until now tended to be on the side of Khamenei over the course of the power struggle. Because finally he as the central coordinator holds the reins between secret services, the military, religious institutions, the association of clergymen and powerful economic cliques, the probability is great that in the end he retains the upper hand in the dispute with the president – as it was already the case with Ahmedinejads predecessors Rafsanjani and Khatami.

 

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