A change of regime in Damascus would therefore change the Middle East fundamentally.

Syria: Iran’s fear of the loss of an ally - Comment on 2011 April 29 (2)

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2011 April 29 (2)
Fundamental changes in Damascus would cause radical changes to the balance of power of the whole region. Read more:

I already dealt with Iran several times:
2009 February 20 - The warfare between the ram and the goat
2009 February 27 - Power Vacuum in Iraq
2009 May 4 - Iran's Campaign for Regional Hegemony
2009 May 11 - Armageddon?
2009 May 20 - Strategies for Mideast
2009 June 9 - Where is Lebanon Heading?
2009 Sep 1 - Power Vacuum in Iraq
2011 Feb 4 – The Arab revolt
and today I again read about this country and want to bring some excerpts about it:

 

A change of regime in Damascus would therefore change the Middle East fundamentally. So Syria is the most important Arab ally of Iran, which does competition with Saudi Arabia at the Gulf about supremacy. Syria supports the extreme groups Hezbollah and Hamas, prevents a pro-western policy in Lebanon and is positively focussed on the Shiite majority in Iraq despite the mistrust between Assad and Prime Minister Nurial Maliki.

Tehran is most of all concerned about a change of regime in Damascus. Because the Islamic Republic uses Syria as bridge to the Mediterranean to supply weapons to Hezbollah and also to Hamas in the Gaza Strip whose political office is in Damascus. Iran stakes on Hezbollah to gather credit points in the Arabic population in the fight against Israel – and to be able to open an own front in case of an attack against their nuclear plants. Therefore it was no surprise that the American government declared it had documents according to which Iran supplies equipment to Syria to suffocate the protests which endanger Iranian interests.

On the other hand Assad’s regime needs Hezbollah to hinder the work of the special tribunal for the assassination of Rafik al Hariri, and Hezbollah needs the Syrian backing to keep the upper hand against the pro-western alliance in the domestic Lebanese power struggle. So Hezbollah succeeded in January 2011 to bring down the government of Prime Minister Saad al Hariri. Without Assad Iran would lose influence in the region and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran would have to look for new ways to send weapons of the value of 200 million dollars each year to its Shiite ally in Lebanon.

That cooperation is difficult after a coup Iran experiences in the dealings with Egypt after Mubarak. In vain the Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi has until now requested the new government in Cairo to resume diplomatic relations. Until now Iran could not achieve more than a confession from Cairo that Iran is no danger for the regional security. On the contrary the rulers in Iran are concerned that the spark of the Arabic democratic movement could again light the fire in their “green movement.”

The more Iran would be pushed back by a change of regime in Damascus the more Saudi Arabia would win ground – in Lebanon as patron saint of Hariris, at the Gulf and presumed also in Iraq where the Shiite government majority would then be able to bet less on foreign sympathy. The consequences of a possible overthrow of Assad however seem to be slight for the kingdom of Jordan where even Islamists hold to the royal dynasty. Not much would have become known about the protests in Daraa when the city would not have been positioned so close to the border with Jordan. So demonstrators could send their amateur videos into the world via the cellular radio connections with the nearby Jordan.

Fundamental changes in Damascus would cause radical changes to the balance of power of the whole region which are not controllable. Also for this reason those hesitate who still had called for quick action at the bloodshed in Libya.

 

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