Provoking military incidents or an Israeli air attack on the nuclear power station near Buschehr could serve as a start.

Search for war occasion - Comment on 2010 July 12

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2010 July 12
Rumours about attack preparations against Iran are not credible. Nevertheless a military conflict could closely lie ahead. Since the passing of the fourth sanction resolution of the UN Security Council on the 9th June rumours and guesses about a soon possible military attack against Iran started happening very fast. Read more:

Today on the 12th July 2010 I red a report from which I will now quote some passages:

Rumours about attack preparations against Iran are not credible. Nevertheless a military conflict could closely lie ahead. Since the passing of the fourth sanction resolution of the UN Security Council on the 9th June rumours and guesses about a soon possible military attack against Iran started happening very fast. They reach an orbiting speed and circulation which would be unimaginable without the internet.

On 30th June president Mahmud Ahmadinedschad said in a long talk with the Japanese news agency Kyodo, no-one can and will dare to attack Iran, not even the USA and all the more not Israel. »They believe that they can win advantages for the negotiations when they hold the stick in the hand but they are to know that that will certainly not happen.«

Whether Iran’s relevant politicians and military people really feel militarily secure or whether they merely consider this seemingly unconcerned reaction to be the more sensible dealing with the permanent war threats is not to be settled.

This in the meantime definitely precludes not at all that the USA or Israel could trigger off a war against Iran already within the next months. Provoking military incidents or an Israeli air attack on the nuclear power station near Buschehr which after many postponements is now after all to be commissioned in September, could serve as a start. The known logic of Israeli politics speaks for an attack still before the installation of the fuel elements into the reactor. In the run-up the production of obviously false reports about the military preparation measures could be interpreted as deliberate diversion tactics.

On 26th June Arabic newspapers of the Gulf region, among them Akhbar Al-Khaleej and Gulf Daily News (both from Bahrain), reported that in Azerbaijan – a post Soviet neighbour state of Iran – US American ground troops and Israeli fighter aircrafts have been stationed.

Not verifiable claims and speculations that Azerbaijan could be prepared to volunteer as hinterland for military strikes against Iran circulate for years.

But there are also real indicators for a military conflict still in the current year considering all justified and necessary scepticism against the flood of rumours. The most important one is the assumed determination of Israel to destroy the reactor of Buschehr before it can be commissioned. At the moment Iran gives the end of September 2010 as date for this. Though the Russian firm commissioned to build it, which again and again has put off the completion, could perhaps cause a renewed postponement.

An additional point of view is that in September, exactly maybe on the 25th of the month, the ten months »Settlement Moratorium« ends which was granted by the Israeli government under strong American pressure. The rightwing parties of the Jerusalem government coalition have now already announced that they definitely do not want to extend the moratorium.

 

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